海外之声 | 在易受冲击的新世界里保持弹性
导读
新冠疫情后的经济重建工作不亚于二战战后的重建工作。一定程度上，世界又一次走到了需要合作创造共赢的时候。同时，经济模式也应当向环保化、公平化、数字化的方向发展。人们需要认识到现存国际经济组织的重要性，因为他们使世界保持联系，并在必要时有效协调全球性的计划。如果没有类似于IMF、世界银行等机构，世界早已处于衰退之中。
当今世界有三大亟待解决的问题：首先，结束全球性的卫生危机：其次，为未来的转变而恢复和改造经济，而不是简单的危机前的经济：最后，缓解贫富差距。每个机构都必须找准自己的位置，了解问题，并尽最大努力解决这些问题。
IMF在应对此次全球卫生危机初期给出的建议不同以往，核心思想是鼓励消费。时至今日，IMF已经开始讨论对于此类支持计划的程度和标准问题。其次，IMF非常迅速地向最不发达国家提供了危机融资。自大流行病开始以来，IMF向一些国家资助了50亿美元，这使83个国家受益。这83个国家中，有49个国家是低收入国家。IMF同时也通过大幅提高优惠贷款能力，向最需要的地方提供帮助，从而做出了极大的改变。当冲击到来时，要果断行动。
哪些产业在危机中崛起了？哪些产业又在危机中失败了？危机刚刚爆发一年之后，数字技术就成为了这场危机的大赢家。数字服务，整体而言，数字货币都飞速发展着。自动化制造也从危机中获益匪浅。失败者是依赖实际接触的行业，例如服务业、旅游业。这些行业不会消亡，但是绝不会恢复到危机之前的水平。
在疫情中倒退最严重的是全球的平等水平。如果不加注意，不仅会极大地伤害受影响的国家，而且会损害整个世界的安全与稳定。应当迅速而大幅度地改革税收政策，转向再分配税制。重塑公共支出政策，增强复原力，不仅为了应对大流行病，而且增强抵御冲击的能力。这意味着在必要时需要投资于受过良好教育、健康、有健全社会保护的有复原力的人们。当然，也应当继续建立金融体系的弹性。在全球金融危机之后，世界做了一些努力，建立了一个更具有弹性的银行系统，但这还不够。在未来，世界还需要更加深远的合作。
作者 | 克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃，IMF总裁
英文原文如下：
Kristalina Georgieva: Resilience in a New Shock-Prone World
Source: IMF
February 19, 2021
Bruce Edwards:
Welcome to this podcast produced by the International Monetary Fund. I'm Bruce Edwards.
Bruce Edwards:
If the global pandemic has proved anything, it's that people and institutions need to adapt to change. IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva was invited by the Albright Institute at Wellesley College to discuss how the fund is adapting today and how it's changed since the institution was created in 1944 to support the economies of the postwar world. Joseph Joyce, professor of international relations in the Department of Economics at Wellesley College, was the moderator of this conversation with Kristalina Georgieva.
Questions come up periodically about the need for a new Bretton Woods system. And maybe I should say very quickly, Bretton Woods is the name we use to refer to the agreement that was made in 1944 at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, not too far from Wellesley, by the 44 representatives of the allied countries, looking forward to the post-war world. And they set up a new monetary system and also started the IMF, as well as the World Bank. So that's what Bretton Woods started with.Joseph Joyce:
And so, the question sometimes comes, is there a need for a new Bretton Woods? And as part of that, how can the Fund persuade countries to do what needs to be done, to do the changes, which you are very eloquently putting out need to be done? How much can the Fund induce countries to make those changes?
Kristalina Georgieva:
I went to Bretton Woods for my birthday this last summer, because I felt I wanted to get into this history of how in the midst of a war, our founding fathers, they, by the way, were all fathers, 44 men, had the wisdom to establish institutions for post-war reconstruction. Now, we are in a similar kind of Bretton Woods moment. We have to reconstruct, we have to rebuild from the hit of COVID-19, and at the same time, we have to transform our economies to be greener, to be fairer, actually, to be digital everywhere so everybody has access to this digital transformation. So we do have a new Bretton Woods moment in that sense.
Kristalina Georgieva:
Does it mean we have to create new institutions? Actually, not because I'm in one of them, this is not self-preservation, I see these institutions having evolved with time, doing what needs to be done today to protect the world economy from significant harm. If we didn't exist, if we didn't have the World Bank, the IMF and other institutions, the world would have been in recession that would have gotten deeper into depression. So we would have had yet another Great Depression.
Kristalina Georgieva:
Why? Because we would have lacked these transmission lines of policy assessment, policy action. Swiftly, you realize that the world has poured $20 trillion to put the floor under the world economy. And monetary policy accommodation has allowed businesses to survive. Unemployment has gone up, but not to dramatic levels. So I would argue that that element of resilience for the world economy that comes with these institutions is precious. We have to value it and we have to continue to develop not only the Bretton Woods institutions, but also the other elements that keep the world connected and effectively coordinates action when it is necessary.
Kristalina Georgieva:
If you look at the IMF today, we perform the heart of the global financial safety net function very differently than we did it in '44, but we do perform this function. And I would be preoccupied and insistent on continuing to build these institutions for tomorrow, where we ... And this is probably the thing, the question that gives me most sleepless nights. The question is, how in a rapidly changing world, that is geopolitically very different, more fragmented than it used to be, how can we keep our membership together? How we can crystallize objectives that generate unity and also action on a scale that is necessary.
Kristalina Georgieva:
So far, the fund has raised to the occasion, even if we would be a bit meandering, losing direction, especially at the moment of shock, the fund always would step up and then change so it can remain effective. And also, what I see is a tremendously important need for cooperation among the multiple institutions that is one driven by purpose.
Kristalina Georgieva:
If we have to say that the world today has three priorities, bring the health crisis to an end everywhere; transform, recover and transform the economy for the future, not replicate the economy of yesterday; and prevent divergence between rich and poor, rich and poor people, rich and poor countries. Each and every institution has to find its place, vis a vis these priorities, and deliver its utmost best to address them. And for me, that is our new Bretton Woods moment, to step up to what is expected from us in this crisis.
Joseph Joyce:
Kristalina, you mentioned a little bit your own previous work, and of course, you grew up in Bulgaria when it was still a communist country, and you were there when the communist regime ended. And we're curious to know, how does that affect your perspective when you look at issues such as the ones we're talking about today?
Kristalina Georgieva:
Well, the most important value of this personal experience for my job at the Fund is that I know firsthand the price people pay for bad policies and the benefits of good policies. My country basically went bankrupt as a result of bad management of our economy. We then got into an incredibly difficult couple of years in the early nineties, after the collapse of the centrally planned economy.
Kristalina Georgieva:
In these days, I had to get up at four o'clock in the morning and queue to buy milk for my daughter. And I saw how my mother's lifelong saving melted to nothing because of hyper inflation. And then, the country took on board prudent policies. Up to this day, Bulgaria is immune against borrowing willy-nilly and squandering money into white elephant type of projects. During this crisis, we see Bulgaria being one of the countries that have handled the economic impact of the pandemic fairly well because of strong buffers and strong finances.
Kristalina Georgieva:
So I bring this experience to the Fund and it is both an understanding that there is a pathway to sound macro economic framework, but also having the empathy for people that are for, very often, no fault of their own experiencing the negative consequences of bad policies, and how this transition to sound macro finances can be managed with attention to social needs. So you don't pull the plug on your education and health expenditures. You guarantee that as a result of adjustment, when this adjustment is necessary, the country is getting better off, but the most vulnerable, the poorest people are not left out. They actually are our center of attention.
Kristalina Georgieva:
And if I may, we are now living through a very unique crisis, and to go back to your first question on the value of these institutions, if we needed to be vindicated for being a part of the global landscape, this crisis gave us a ample opportunity for that. The Fund assessed the crisis very quickly and came up with unorthodox policy advice. We basically said spend, keep the receipts, but spend. You don't hear an IMF managing director saying these words, spend, often. We did that because it was the right thing to do. Now, we are talking about calibration of support at this stage of the crisis.
Kristalina Georgieva:
And then, we stepped up very, very rapidly, crisis finance directed to especially the most vulnerable countries. We have funded some countries, $5 billion since the beginning of the pandemic, benefiting 83 countries. 49 of these 83 countries are low income countries. And this is where we made the biggest difference by significantly increasing our concessional lending capacity to provide lifelines where they're most needed. And I can say it was my upbringing, but even more so having served as a crisis commissioner and learning what it is to anticipate a shock, and when the shock comes, to act decisively.
Joseph Joyce:
Well, speaking of that, not only does the IMF and you talk about the crisis, to do what we need to do now, which you've just outlined, but I know you also talked about the world after the crisis and how things will change. And in particular, you said that the crisis has triggered profound structural transformations of national economies. And you said that governments have to beready to aid in the transformation of those economies. So I wonder if you could tell us which sectors of the economies may prosper, which economies may not, may actually contract, and what type of policies do you see governments with the backing of the fund enacting?
Kristalina Georgieva:
Well, thank you for this question. What is very clear, just a year into this pandemic-induced crisis, is that digital, broadly speaking, tech, big winners of the crisis. You and I have no problem to do our jobs and we are part of this privileged segment of the economy that can operate remotely. Digital services, overall, digital currencies, they're all taking off very rapidly. I used to say the future is digital. Well, the future has arrived. We are in it. Automation and manufacturing that is based on that automation, big winner.
Kristalina Georgieva:
Where are the losers? Contact dependent industries. We saw what has happened to restaurants and services of all kinds. Travel. There are some who say the convention tourism is dead. I wouldn't go that far. I think it is going to eventually recover to a certain degree, but we sure are not going to go back to where we were in the pre-pandemic world. Low skilled workers, women, young people, these are the segments in societies, country after country, that are most severely impacted.
Kristalina Georgieva:
And broadly, if I talk not about the sector, but about an issue, the issue that is going, already is hitting us and will hit us even more, is deepening inequalities. Because of this K shape that we see in countries and across countries. I am particularly concerned about the K shape across countries. After decades of progress in convergence between high income and low income countries, we are hitting the reverse gear. We're seeing now divergence that, if left unattended, would not only harm tremendously those affected, the countries that are affected, but it would harm security and stability in the world as a whole.
Kristalina Georgieva:
So there is hugely important priority on recognizing this divergence, some doing very well, some doing very poorly. Rapidly and substantially revamping our tax policies, moving towards more re-distributional system of taxation, so those that are doing very well help the rest. Reshaping public spending policies so we think more about building resilience, not just to the pandemic, but resilience to shocks. And what it means is investing in resilient people that are educated, healthy, with sound social protection, when necessary. Resilient planet, we have now a climate crisis that was knocking on the door before, that has gone nowhere, that we have to deal with.
Kristalina Georgieva:
And of course, continue to build the resilience of our financial system. As you know, Joe, we did some of it, actually, quite a lot of it after the global financial crisis. We built a more resilient banking system, but that is not enough. We have no banking institutions that have been left off the hook. And of course, we have this holistic view of resilience for a world that is going to be more shock-prone, because it is a faster changing world.
Joseph Joyce:
So Kristalina, as you know, the Albright Institute is designed to take young women at Wellesley College and expose them to global issues. And for that reason, we ask global leaders such as you to come and address that. So Kristalina, thank you so very, very much for joining Wellesley College today.
Kristalina Georgieva:
Thank you, Joe. It was wonderful to be with you. And to everybody who was on the line, stay well and never nevernever aspire for less than the best you can be
Joseph Joyce:
I'm sure Madeleine Albright would second that one very quickly.
Kristalina Georgieva:
Thank you.
That was Wellesley College professor Joseph Joyce in conversation with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the Albright Institute for Global Affairs. You can watch the entire event on the Wellesley College YouTube channel, and go to IMF.org to find more conversations with Kristalina Georgieva, including her talk at the Center for Strategic Philanthropy at the University of Cambridge. And look for other IMF podcasts wherever you get your podcasts. Subscribe if you like what you're hearing. You can also follow us on Twitter at IMF_podcast. Thanks for listening.
编辑 查王皓天
来源 IMF
编译 王诗言
责编 李锦璇、蒋旭
监制 朱霜霜
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